Population changes in a Southern Ocean krill predator point towards regional Antarctic sea ice declines

While foraging, marine predators integrate information about the environment often across wide-ranging oceanic foraging grounds and reflect these in population parameters. One such species, the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; SRW) has shown alterations to foraging behaviour, declines in body condition, and reduced reproductive rates after 2009 in the South African population. As capital breeders, these changes suggest decreased availability of their main prey at high-latitudes, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). This study analysed environmental factors affecting prey availability for this population over the past 40 years, finding a notable southward contraction in sea ice, a 15-30% decline in sea ice concentration, and a more than two-fold increase in primary production metrics after 2008. These environmental conditions are less supportive of Antarctic krill recruitment in known SRW foraging grounds. Additionally, marginal ice zone, sea ice concentration and two primary production metrics were determined to be either regionally significant or marginally significant predictors of calving interval length when analysed using a linear model. Findings highlight the vulnerability of recovering baleen whale populations to climate change and show how capital breeders serve as sentinels of ecosystem changes in regions that are difficult or costly to study.