Predicting Recurrence after Sublobar Resection in Patients with Lung Adenocarcinoma Using Preoperative Chest CT Scans

Background Sublobar resection for lung cancer is usually guided by cutoff values for consolidation size (maximal diameter of the solid tumor component) and consolidation-to-tumor ratio (CTR). The effects of these factors as continuous variables and the reason for established cutoffs are, to the knowledge of the authors, unexplored. Purpose To quantitatively assess the predictive value of CTR and consolidation size for cancer recurrence risk after sublobar resection in clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. Materials and Methods This retrospective study reviewed sublobar resection for clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma performed between January 2010 and December 2019. A restricted cubic spline function verified linearity by estimating recurrence probabilities using CTR and consolidation size obtained on preoperative CT scans. Statistical analyses included a Cox proportional hazards model to identify risk factors for cancer recurrence and the Cochran-Armitage trend test for the association between CTR and consolidation size. Results Of 1032 enrolled patients (age, 63.9 years ± 9.9 [SD]; 464 male patients), 523 (50.7%) and 509 (49.3%) underwent wedge resection and segmentectomy, respectively. Among patients with a CTR between 1% and 50% (n = 201), 187 (93.0%) had a consolidation size of less than or equal to 10 mm (P < .001). There was a positive association between the risk of recurrence with CTR and consolidation size (r² = 0.727; P < .001). The recurrence rate showed the greatest increase when CTR was greater than 50% or consolidation size was greater than 10 mm. Specifically, the recurrence rate increased from 2.1% (three of 146) at 26%-50% CTR to 8.3% (nine of 108) at 51%-75% CTR, and from 4.4% (eight of 183) for 6-10-mm consolidation size to 11.9% (23 of 194) for 11-15-mm consolidation size. The probability of recurrence exhibited linearity and increased with CTR and consolidation size. Conclusion Cancer recurrence risk after sublobar resection for stage IA adenocarcinoma consistently rises with CTR and consolidation size. Current guideline cutoffs for sublobar resection remain clinically relevant given observed recurrence rates. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.