Comparative assessment of physics-based in silico methods to calculate relative solubilities

Relative solubilities, i.e. whether a given molecule is more soluble in one solvent compared to others, is a critical parameter for pharmaceutical and agricultural formulation development and chemical synthesis, material science, and environmental chemistry. In silico predictions of this crucial variable can help reducing experiments, waste of solvents and synthesis optimization. In this study, we evaluate the performance of different physics-based methods for predicting relative solubilities. Our assessment involves quantum mechanics-based COSMO-RS and molecular dynamics-based free energy methods using OPLS4, the open-source OpenFF Sage, and GAFF force fields, spanning over 200 solvent-solute combinations. Our investigation highlights the important role of compound multimerization, an effect which must be accounted for to obtain accurate relative solubility predictions. The performance landscape of these methods is varied, with significant differences in precision depending on both the method used and the solute considered, thereby offering an improved understanding of the predictive power of physics-based methods in chemical research.