Anopheles gambiae Re-Emergence and Resurgent Malaria Transmission in Eastern Rwanda, 2010-2020

Rwanda achieved unprecedented malaria control gains from 2000 to 2010, but cases increased 20-fold between 2011 and 2017. Vector control challenges and environmental changes were noted as potential explanations, but no studies have investigated causes of the resurgence or identified which vector species drove transmission. We conducted a retrospective study in four sites in eastern Rwanda that conducted monthly entomological surveillance and outpatient malaria care. We compared sporozoite rates, human blood index (HBI), and relative abundance of the primary vectors, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis, from 2017 to 2020. We then modeled the effects of vector control interventions, insecticide resistance, and temperature changes on species composition and reported malaria incidence. Sporozoite rates were 28 times higher and HBI was four times higher in An. gambiae compared with An. arabiensis. Insecticide-treated bed nets, first distributed nationally in 2010, were associated with decreased An. gambiae relative abundance. However, increased pyrethroid resistance was associated with increased An. gambiae relative abundance and malaria incidence. Epidemic malaria peaks corresponded to periods of model-predicted An. gambiae re-emergence, and increased regional air temperatures during the period were further associated with increased malaria incidence. Indoor residual spraying (IRS), implemented with non-pyrethroid insecticides later in the period, was associated with 86% reductions in An. gambiae relative abundance and 75% reductions in malaria incidence. These findings suggest that increased pyrethroid resistance and the re-emergence of An. gambiae were closely linked to the malaria resurgence in eastern Rwanda. Non-pyrethroid IRS or other control measures that effectively target An. gambiae may help prevent future resurgences.