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Updated: Jun 9, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Humans versus models: a comparative assessment of ecosystem services models and stakeholders' perceptions
João David1, Pedro Cabral2,3, Felipe S Campos4,5,6
1Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Geography Department, Landscape Ecology Lab, Rudower Chaussee 16, 12489, Berlin, Germany. joao.david@geo.hu-berlin.de.
This study mapped Ecosystem Services (ES) in Portugal from 1990-2018, revealing stakeholders overestimated ES potential by 32.8%. Integrating expert knowledge with models is crucial for effective land-use planning.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Mapping Ecosystem Services (ES) is vital for sustainable ecosystem management.
- Integrating expert knowledge improves ES research and assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To calculate multi-temporal ES indicators for mainland Portugal using spatial modeling.
- To develop the ASEBIO index, combining ES potential with stakeholder-defined weights.
- To compare model-based ES potential with stakeholder perceptions.
Main Methods:
- Spatial modeling of eight multi-temporal ES indicators for mainland Portugal (1990-2018).
- Integration into the ASEBIO index using CORINE Land Cover data.
- Multi-criteria evaluation with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for stakeholder weights.
Main Results:
- Significant mismatch observed: stakeholders overestimated ES potential by 32.8% on average.
- Stakeholders overestimated all assessed ES; drought regulation and erosion prevention showed highest contrast.
- Water purification, food production, and recreation ES were most aligned between models and stakeholders.
Conclusions:
- The study provides the first national overview of multiple ES over 28 years.
- Disparities exist between data-driven models and stakeholder-based evaluations of ES.
- Integrative strategies combining scientific models and expert knowledge are recommended for ES assessment and land-use planning.
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