Agreement with COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Has Poor Temporal Stability

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Social Sciences
• Public Health

Background:

• Survey measures of conspiracy theories (CTs) may suffer from low temporal stability.
• This instability can complicate the interpretation of research findings.
• Understanding the stability of CT endorsement is crucial for accurate assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the temporal stability of endorsement for COVID-19-related conspiracy theories (CTs).
• To assess whether situational factors influence the reported agreement with CTs.

Main Methods:

• An online survey was administered to 179 general medicine students in March and May 2022.
• Participants responded to items addressing two specific COVID-19 CTs on multiple occasions.
• Test-retest reliability was assessed by correlating responses over time.

Main Results:

• The mean endorsement of CTs did not significantly differ between March and May.
• However, the correlation between responses across these time points was low (0.5 < r < 0.7).
• A majority of participants who agreed with CTs in March disagreed in May, indicating significant individual-level fluctuation.

Conclusions:

• Low temporal stability in CT endorsement was observed, even with consistent situational factors within a single month.
• Fluctuations between March and May suggest situational influences, not random error, affect responses.
• The findings problematize the interpretation of survey data on CTs and highlight the impact of external factors on belief reporting.