Evaluating ecosystem services in urban salt marshes: Assessing vulnerability to sea-level rise and implications for...

This study presents a spatio-temporal framework that integrates ecosystem services into ecological risk assessment to evaluate the ecosystem service vulnerability of urban salt marshes to sea-level rise. The model was tested at Belle Isle Marsh to quantify and qualify the evolving capacity of urban marshes to continue supplying ecosystem services to an increasing urban populace to the end of the century with focus on carbon storage, nitrogen storage, fish nursery, and Saltmarsh Sparrow viewing. We project that sea-level rise will drive dynamic trade-offs between habitats and ecosystem services over space and time. Ultimately, habitat fragmentation and coversion to open ocean will severely impair carbon storage and wildlife viewing services, while also enhancing short-term fish nursery and nitrogen storage services. This approach offers nuanced understanding of where, when, and how services may interact under future conditions, and enables proactive planning and adaptation to emerging challenges.