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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Applicability of attribution methods for identifying runoff changes in changing environments.

Tingting Huang1,2, Yu Liu3, Zhifeng Jia4,5

  • 1School of Water and Environment, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.

Scientific Reports
|October 31, 2024
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Human activities significantly reduced watershed runoff by over 90% in the Jinghe River basin, according to a study comparing attribution methods. The Milly-Zhang Budyko hypothesis is recommended for similar analyses.

Keywords:
Changing environmentJinghe River basinLand use and cover changeQuantitative identificationRunoff

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Management

Background:

  • Accurate assessment of watershed runoff changes is vital for water resource management under climate change and human impacts.
  • Various methods exist for attributing runoff changes, but their applicability varies by environmental context.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantitatively assess the impacts of human activities and climate change on runoff variations in the Jinghe River basin (JRB).
  • To compare the effectiveness of five different attribution methods in a specific river basin.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of five runoff attribution methods: Double Mass Curve (DMC), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and three Budyko hypotheses (Fu, Choudhury–Yang, Milly–Zhang).
  • Application of these methods to hydrological data from the Jinghe River basin.

Main Results:

  • Annual runoff in the JRB has significantly decreased.
  • Human activities were identified as the primary driver, accounting for over 90% of the runoff reduction.
  • The SWAT model and Budyko hypotheses (except DMC) showed consistent results.
  • The Milly–Zhang Budyko hypothesis, incorporating vegetation changes, closely matched SWAT model simulations.

Conclusions:

  • Human activities are the dominant factor in recent runoff decline in the JRB.
  • The Milly–Zhang Budyko hypothesis is recommended for runoff attribution analysis in the Loess Plateau region due to its consistency with the SWAT model and consideration of vegetation dynamics.
  • The DMC method is less suitable for basins with non-precipitation-driven hydrological changes.