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Investigating immersion and migration decisions for agent-based modelling: A cautionary tale.

Jakub Bijak1, Ariana Modirrousta-Galian1, Philip A Higham1

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Summary

This study explored immersion's effect on migration decisions using an interactive game. Complex experimental designs introduced confounds, showing that modeling needs shouldn't compromise experimental rigor for agent-based models.

Keywords:
Agent-based modellingcognitive experimentsdecision-makinginterdisciplinarymigrationmigration decisionsrisk-takingserious games

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Area of Science:

  • Agent-based modeling
  • Cognitive science
  • Migration studies

Background:

  • Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate human behavior but often rely on restrictive assumptions.
  • Standard surveys may lack ecological validity for complex, emotive decisions like irregular migration.
  • Immersive contexts could improve the accuracy of experimental data for ABMs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the effect of immersion on risk-taking in migration decisions.
  • To inform the multi-disciplinary construction of an agent-based model of migration.
  • To address the lack of ecological validity in survey data for ABMs.

Main Methods:

  • A preregistered study using a choice-based interactive fiction game.
  • Four experimental conditions: three immersive game variations and one standard survey format.
  • 1000 Prolific users participated across conditions.

Main Results:

  • The experimental design to enhance ecological validity proved too complex.
  • Distinct experimental conditions introduced unintended confounds, hindering result interpretation.
  • Results serve as a cautionary tale for agent-based modelers regarding experimental design principles.

Conclusions:

  • Modeling needs must not override fundamental principles of experimental design.
  • Further rigorous research is needed to improve the ecological validity of data for ABMs.
  • The study highlights challenges in integrating immersive experimental data into agent-based modeling.