New South Wales data linkage study reveals a shift in HCC mortality risk: Time for broader strategies

This study aims to examine the impact of sociodemographic and clinical factors on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

We conducted a 15-year retrospective study (2001-2015) using data linkage of health records and cancer registry databases, to identify all HCC cases and analyse HCC-related and all-cause mortality rates. Location-based socioeconomic status (SES) was determined using the Socioeconomic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to determine the effect of key variables on mortality.

5564 cases of HCC were diagnosed during the study period. A study cohort of 5454 cases was analysed after excluding cases with key missing data. More than half of the chronic liver disease cases were due to non-viral causes. During the study period, 4033 deaths occurred, of which 2862 were HCC-related. The median survival time for HCC-related deaths was 547 days, and the 5-year survival rate was 31.3 %. Higher HCC-related mortality rates were observed in SEIFA quintiles 2, 3 and 4, when compared to 5 (where SEIFA 1 is most disadvantaged, and SEIFA 5 is most advantaged). Furthermore, significantly increased HCC-related mortality was observed for those aged ≥65, male gender, Australian-born, hospitalisation due to complications of alcohol use, having metastatic HCC at diagnosis, and not receiving surgery for HCC.

There is higher prevalence of non-viral-related HCC than viral-related HCC in NSW, Australia, where HCC-related mortality risk is greatest among those Australian-born and lower to higher SES, when compared to highest SES. Identifying factors contributing to these emerging disparities is crucial for developing effective prevention programs and allocating research and health resources.