Enhancing long-term water quality modeling by addressing base demand, demand patterns, and temperature uncertainty...

Water quality modelling in Water Distribution systems (WDS) is frequently affected by uncertainties in input variables such as base demand and decay constants. When utilizing simulation tools like EPANET, which necessitate exact numerical inputs, these uncertainties can result in inaccurate simulations. This study proposes a novel framework that leverages unsupervised machine learning, specifically a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMMs), to represent and integrate these uncertainties in the simulation. By classifying historical water demand into fuzzy clusters, the framework allows for certain linguistic inputs (e.g., "high" or "low" demand) to be used in water quality simulations. The framework also incorporates representative hourly demand patterns and temperature-dependent chlorine decay constants based on historical data correlations. Validations were conducted on the Anytown network using WNTR-EPANET, comparing simulated chlorine residuals with Validation data from 181 steady-state simulations. The simulation through the framework achieved a Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD) of <0.008 across all demand clusters, indicating high similarity between predicted and actual probability distributions . In comparison to other simulation scenarios tested, which exhibited increased variability (JSD > 0.18), the proposed framework demonstrated improved accuracy in representing chlorine residual distributions. The methodology is adaptable to other systems, if similar historical datasets containing key variables, such as flow rates and temperature, are provided. While the framework offers a more flexible and accurate approach to handling uncertainties in WDS, its effectiveness is contingent upon the availability of robust historical demand and temperature data for decay constant calibration.