Spatiotemporal patterns and factors contributing to neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: Data from EDHS 2000 to 2019

Although Ethiopia has substantial improvements in various health indicators such as maternal and child mortality, the burden of neonatal mortality remains high. Between 2016 and 2019, neonatal mortality increased from 29 deaths per 1,000 live births to 33 deaths per 1,000 live births. This study aimed to explore the spatial patterns and factors contributing to neonatal mortality in Ethiopia.

Data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) for the years 2000, 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2019 were analyzed. The EDHS sampling design uses a two-stage cluster sampling technique, considering census enumeration areas as primary sampling units and households as secondary sampling units. We used the Spatial Scan analysis in SaTScan and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic in Geographic Information System (GIS), to analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of neonatal mortality. Maternal, newborn and health service-related factors contributing to neonatal mortality were also analyzed using a multilevel logistic regression model. Adjusted Odds Rios (AOR) with corresponding 95% CI were presented as a measure of association and a P-value of 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

During the initial three consecutive surveys, there was a consistent pattern of hot spot clusters in the Amhara and Benshangul Gumuz regions, along with certain parts of the Oromia region. However, in later surveys, these clusters shifted to the eastern parts of the country, notably including the Somali region. Early initiation of breast feeding was associated with reduced chances of neonatal death (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]) = 0.27; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.23, 0.32). Neonates born at home (AOR = 1.46; 95% CI: 1.16, 1.82) and male babies had a higher likelihood of mortality during the neonatal period compared to their counterparts (AOR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.51). The odds of neonatal mortality increased with the number of children a mother had ever given birth to (AOR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.51). In contrast, longer birth intervals were associated with a reduced risk of neonatal mortality (AOR = 0.76; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.83).

The central southern, central-western, north-western, and northern parts of Ethiopia had most of the neonatal death clusters in the first three rounds of DHS while eastern Ethiopia had the highest neonatal mortality clusters in the latest two surveys. Our results underscore the importance for policymakers and health administrators to reassess intervention approaches and reallocate resources to regions identified as hot spots for neonatal mortality. Enhancing the initiation of breastfeeding within the first hour of birth would improve newborn survival rates. Special attention and care need to be given to babies born of smaller sizes.