Assessing systematic biases in farmers' local weather change perceptions

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Psychology

Background:

• Scientific climate change data is crucial for policy, but stakeholder perceptions significantly shape decision-making.
• Understanding farmer perceptions is vital for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate weather perception biases among corn and soybean farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt.
• To quantify the gap between farmers' reported weather perceptions and meteorological evidence for temperature, precipitation, and drought.
• To investigate how land use decisions may influence these perception biases.

Main Methods:

• Conducted spatially-delineated primary surveys with corn and soybean farmers.
• Compared farmer-reported weather perceptions (temperature, precipitation, drought) with historical meteorological data.
• Analyzed the relationship between land use changes (cropping incidence on grasslands) and perception biases.

Main Results:

• Approximately 70% of surveyed farmers demonstrated misperceptions of past weather changes.
• Among misperceiving farmers, three-fourths overestimated temperature and drought frequency, while 40% underestimated precipitation trends.
• Farmers with higher cropping incidence on former grasslands were more likely to under-perceive drought and over-perceive wetter conditions.

Conclusions:

• Farmer perceptions of weather changes are systematically biased, often aligning with past land use decisions.
• These perception biases can impact the effectiveness of climate change policies and adaptation strategies.
• Investigating perception biases alongside economic decisions provides critical insights for climate policy development.