Simplification of a registry-based algorithm for ejection fraction prediction in heart failure patients:...

Left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) is used to categorize heart failure (HF) into phenotypes but this information is often missing in electronic health records or non-HF registries.

We tested the applicability of a simplified version of a multivariable algorithm, that was developed on data of the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to predict EF in patients with HF. We used data from 4,868 patients with HF from the Cardiology Centers of the Netherlands database, an organization of 13 cardiac outpatient clinics that operate between the general practitioner and the hospital cardiologist. The algorithm included 17 demographical and clinical variables. We tested model discrimination, model performance and calculated model sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for EF ≥ vs. <50% and EF ≥ vs. <40%. We additionally performed a multivariable multinomial analysis for all three separate HF phenotypes (with reduced, mildly reduced and preserved EF) HFrEF vs. HFmrEF vs. HFpEF. Finally, we internally validated the model by using temporal validation.

Mean age was 66 ±12 years, 44% of patients were women, 68% had HFpEF, 17% had HFrEF, and 15% had HFmrEF. The C-statistic was of 0.71 for EF ≥/< 50% (95% CI: 0.69-0.72) and of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.73-0.75) for EF ≥/< 40%. The model had the highest sensitivities for EF ≥50% (0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.75) and for EF ≥40% (0.70, 95% CI: 0.65-0.71). Similar results were achieved by the multinomial model, but the C-statistics for predicting HFpEF vs HFrEF was lower (0.61, 95% CI 0.58-0.63). The internal validation confirmed good discriminative ability.

A simple algorithm based on routine clinical characteristics can help discern HF phenotypes in non-cardiology datasets and research settings such as research on primary care data, where measurements of EF is often not available.