Modelling the Banni social-ecological system using participatory system dynamics for building insights on invasive...

Invasive species are a significant driver of environmental change in social-ecological systems (SES) globally. Given that SES are inherently complex adaptive systems (CAS), they continuously reorganize themselves and adapt to change, including changes in ecological composition, as well as in associated lives and livelihoods. Decision-making on invasive species management in such systems can be contested and fraught with tradeoffs. The Banni Grasslands in Kutch, India, is one such system where the introduction of Prosopisjuliflora (P.juliflora), an invasive woody species, has over decades resulted in deeply coupled social-ecological change. Removal of P.juliflora for land restoration is as of date a contested policy choice. Through a participatory transdisciplinary process comprising workshops and consultations with the local community (Maldharis), civil society and researchers involved in long term research on Banni, a system dynamics simulation model was developed which synthesizes the SES dynamics as a set of feedback loops. The model was used to simulate 'what-if' scenarios of interest up to 2050, to study consequences of restoration and the impact of climate extremes, to generate insights which could be useful in aiding decision making. The runs show how vis-à-vis a Business-As-Usual Scenario, restoration could help Maldharis increase livestock populations and livestock income, although there would still be a limit to the growth, with livestock reaching a higher normal. The runs show how it would also mean a loss in the P.juliflora-dependent charcoal-based income and livelihoods, and the extent of the loss, raising the question of finding alternative livelihoods. In a climate extremes scenario, the system, being more resource-intensive owing to growing livestock population, and loss of the relatively climate proof P.julilfora-based income, counterintuitively shows higher sensitivity to climate change impacts resulting in more pronounced impact on income variation. In order to engage stakeholders via 'live' simulation and scenario building, a user-friendly app encoding the simulation model was developed and used to carry out a participatory scenario planning exercise with the community to allow for live appraisal of the scenarios and their implications for decision-making. The paper summarizes insights from the simulation runs and from taking the app back to the community.