Dust over water: Analyzing the impact of lake desiccation on dust storms on the Iranian Plateau

The desiccation of lakes on the Iranian Plateau, driven by both natural processes and anthropogenic activities, has led to significant land cover changes, exposing lake beds and triggering adverse environmental consequences. These transformations pose serious threats to ecological conditions and the provision of ecosystem services. This study investigates the potential links between lake desiccation and the occurrence of dust storms across major lakes on the Iranian Plateau. By utilizing remote sensing data and time series statistical analysis, including the Mann-Kendall test, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, and frequency analysis, we assessed changes in lake extent and their effects on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Particular Matter (PM2.5) from 1985 to 2020. An analysis of Landsat imagery reveals that lake desiccation commenced in the late 1990s, exhibiting a marked downward trend that has intensified in recent years. The results show a significant inverse correlation between aerosol parameters (AOD and PM2.5) and lake extent. Reduced lake area is associated with elevated AOD and PM2.5 concentrations, with the highest aerosol levels observed when lakes reach their smallest extent. Notably, despite an 81 % reduction in the lake area, dust storm occurrences have increased by 20%. These findings highlight the critical role of lake desiccation in exacerbating dust storms in the surrounding regions. Furthermore, the temporal alignment between fluctuations in lake extent and dust storm frequency is validated through regression analysis with a 95 % confidence level. The consistency between our results and existing literature underscores the reliability of the observed relationship, emphasizing the urgent need to address the environmental consequences of lake desiccation to mitigate its broader ecological impacts and potential human health impacts. Graphical Abstract.