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  3. Using Human Observations With Instrument-based Metrics To Understand Changing Rainfall Patterns.
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  3. Using Human Observations With Instrument-based Metrics To Understand Changing Rainfall Patterns.

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V Savo1,2,3, K E Kohfeld4,5, J Sillmann6,7

  • 1Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, BC, Canada. valentina.savo@uniroma3.it.

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|November 5, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change alters rainfall patterns, impacting subsistence communities globally. Human observations align with instrumental data, revealing crucial changes in rainfall, drought, and extreme events not fully captured by current indices.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Social Science
  • Agricultural Science

Background:

  • Climate change is altering global precipitation regimes, significantly affecting subsistence communities.
  • Human perceptions of rainfall changes are vital for understanding local climate impacts.
  • Existing precipitation indices may not fully capture the nuances of observed climate variability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the utility of human-based rainfall observations as climate metrics.
  • To assess the relevance of instrument-based precipitation indices for subsistence activities.
  • To highlight the social-ecological impacts of altered rainfall patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review of human-based rainfall observations (1994-2013).
  • Comparison of human observations with instrumental records for comparable periods (1955-2005).
  • Analysis of reported changes in rainy season characteristics by communities.

    • Main Results:

    • Human observations show high agreement with instrumental records for rainfall (72%), drought (76%), and extreme rainfall (81%).
    • A significant majority of communities (1114/1827) report increased variability in rainy season timing and continuity.
    • Tropical regions are particularly affected, with disruptions to cropping calendars.

    Conclusions:

    • Human and instrumental observations of climate change are complementary and valuable.
    • Current precipitation indices are insufficient to capture the full spectrum of climate impacts on subsistence livelihoods.
    • Further research is needed on the social-ecological consequences of understudied rainfall changes.