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AIDS mortality in Brazil, 2012-2022: a time series study
Lucas de Souza Luna1, Rafael Pedro de Souza Nascimento1, Paula Esbaltar de Oliveira1
1Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), Av José Maniçoba, s/n, Centro, Petrolina, Pernambuco, 56.304-205, Brazil.
AIDS Research and Therapy
|November 6, 2024
Summary
AIDS mortality in Brazil showed a decline from 2012 to 2020, but increased from 2020 to 2022. Regional disparities and the COVID-19 pandemic impacted these trends in Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) deaths.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
Background:
- Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection poses a significant global health challenge, potentially progressing to Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) with high mortality.
- Effective management and monitoring of HIV/AIDS are crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the temporal trends of AIDS mortality across Brazil, its macro-regions, federal units, and capitals between 2012 and 2022.
- To identify regional variations and potential influencing factors on AIDS mortality rates.
Main Methods:
- A time-series analysis was conducted on all reported AIDS deaths in Brazil from 2012 to 2022.
- Joinpoint regression models were employed to analyze time trends of crude and standardized mortality rates.
- Annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals.
Main Results:
- A total of 128,678 AIDS deaths were recorded, with crude and standardized mortality rates of 6.3/100,000 and 5.3/100,000, respectively.
- A significant declining trend in AIDS mortality was observed from 2012 to 2020 in the Central-West, Southeast, and South regions, as well as in 10 states and 10 capitals.
- An increase in AIDS deaths was noted from 2020 onwards in the North, Northeast, and Southeast regions compared to 2019.
Conclusions:
- AIDS mortality in Brazil exhibited a downward trend from 2012 to 2020, followed by an upward trend from 2020 to 2022.
- Observed regional disparities in mortality trends likely reflect underlying social inequalities.
- The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have influenced the management and outcomes of HIV/AIDS in Brazil.
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