Relationship between global warming and autism spectrum disorder from 1990 to 2019

Despite mounting evidence linking neurological diseases with climate change, the link between autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and global warming has yet to be explored.

To examine the relationship between the incidence of ASD and global warming from 1990 to 2019 and estimate the trajectory of ASD incidence from 2020 to 2100 globally.

We extracted meteorological data from TerraClimate between 1990 and 2019. To estimate the association between global ASD incidence and temperature variation, we adopted a two-stage analysis strategy using a generalised additive regression model. Additionally, we projected future ASD incidence under four representative shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 126, 245, 370 and 585) by bootstrapping.

Between 1990 and 2019, the global mean incidence of ASD in children under 5 years old was 96.9 per 100 000. The incidence was higher in males (147.5) than in females (46.3). A 1.0 °C increase in the temperature variation was associated with a 3.0% increased risk of ASD incidence. The association was stronger in boys and children living in a low/low-middle sociodemographic index region, as well as in low-latitude areas. According to the SSP585 scenario, by 2100, the children living in regions between 10 and 20° latitude, particularly in Africa, will experience a 68.6% increase in ASD incidence if the association remains. However, the SSP126 scenario is expected to mitigate this increase, with a less than 10% increase in incidence across all latitudes.

Our study highlights the association between climate change and ASD incidence worldwide. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the association.