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Persistent Airflow Limitation Prediction and Risk Factor Analysis Among Asthmatic Children: A Retrospective Cohort

Shiqiu Xiong1,2, Chunyu Tian1, Mingjun Shao1

  • 1Department of Allergy, Center for Asthma Prevention and Lung Function Laboratory, Children's Hospital Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing, China.

Pediatric Pulmonology
|November 6, 2024
PubMed

Insights

Asthma exacerbations and poor adherence predict reversible persistent airflow limitation (RPAL) in children. High BMI and pneumonia history predict irreversible PAL (IPAL), enabling early risk identification.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Pulmonology
  • Asthma Research
  • Clinical Risk Prediction

Background:

  • Persistent airflow limitation (PAL) in asthmatic children is linked to poor prognosis.
  • Identifying risk factors for PAL is crucial for early intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify risk factors for developing persistent airflow limitation (PAL) in children with asthma.
  • To develop and validate a predictive model for identifying high-risk asthmatic children.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study of 2072 children (5-16 years) with asthma over 2 years.
  • Logistic regression analysis to determine risk factors for reversible PAL (RPAL) and irreversible PAL (IPAL).
  • Development and validation of a multivariate logistic regression-based prediction model with nomogram visualization.

Main Results:

  • 14.72% of patients developed PAL.
  • Asthma exacerbation history and poor adherence were risk factors for RPAL.
  • High BMI (>19.0 kg/m²) and pneumonia history were risk factors for IPAL.
  • The prediction model demonstrated good discriminatory ability (AUCs ranging from 0.73 to 0.79).

Conclusions:

  • Asthma exacerbation history and poor adherence are key predictors of RPAL.
  • Elevated BMI and prior pneumonia increase the risk of IPAL.
  • The developed prediction model effectively identifies children at high risk for PAL.
Abstract

Keywords:
asthmatic childrenpersistent airflow limitationprediction modelrisk factors

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