Burden of major cancers in China attributable to modifiable risk factors: Predictions from 2012 to 2035

The cancer burden continues to escalate in China. This study was designed to quantify the burden of deaths attributable to modifiable risk factors for major cancers in China from 2012 to 2035, and to provide evidence-based recommendations for cancer management. Using nationally representative data on risk factors and cancer mortality, a comparative risk assessment approach was employed to calculate the temporal trend of population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for 15 modifiable risk factors associated with major cancers in China. The PAF for modifiable risk factors decreased from 64.5% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 46.2%-75.3%) in 2012 to 59.3% (95% UI: 40.6%-71.2%) in 2035. Attributable deaths increased from 1,309,990 (95% UI: 938,217-1,529,170) in 2012 to 1,313,418 (95% UI: 898,411-1,577,189) in 2035, while attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rose from 28,488,120 (95% UI: 20,471,859-33,308,237) to 33,017,705 (95% UI: 22,730,814-39,564,735). Between 2012 and 2035, the top three risk factors contributing to cancer burden shifted from smoking, insufficient fruit intake and particulate matter <2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5) exposure to smoking, physical inactivity, and inadequate fruit intake. Controlling modifiable risk factors at recommended levels by 2020 could have prevented around 890,000 deaths and 2.2 million DALYs by 2035. The proportion of cancer burden due to modifiable risk factors is projected to decrease, but the absolute number continues to rise. Adhering to an optimal lifestyle could prevent ~40% of cancer deaths by 2035. Key modifiable risk factors including smoking, physical inactivity, and insufficient intake of fruits require high attention.