Integrative prognostic modeling for stage III lung adenosquamous carcinoma post-tumor resection: machine learning...

The prognostic landscape of stage III Lung Adenosquamous Carcinoma (ASC) following primary tumor resection remains underexplored. A thoughtfully developed prognostic model has the potential to guide clinicians in patient counseling and the formulation of effective therapeutic strategies.

Utilizing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database spanning 2000 to 2018, this study identified independent prognostic factors influencing Overall Survival (OS) in ASC using Boruta analysis. Employing Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Network algorithms, predictive models were constructed. Model performance was assessed through key metrics, including Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC), calibration plot, Brier score, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).

Among 241 eligible patients, seven clinical parameters-age, sex, primary tumor size, N stage, primary tumor site, chemotherapy, and systemic therapy-were identified as significant predictors of OS. Advanced age, male gender, larger tumor size, absence of chemotherapy, and lack of systemic therapy were associated with poorer survival. The Random Forest model outperformed others, achieving 3- and 5-year AUCs of 0.80/0.79 (training) and 0.74/0.65 (validation). It also demonstrated better calibration, lower Brier scores (training: 0.189/0.171; validation: 0.207/0.199), and more favorable DCA. SHAP values enhanced model interpretability by highlighting the impact of each parameter on survival predictions. To facilitate clinical application, the Random Forest model was deployed on a web-based server for accessible prognostic assessments.

This study presents a robust machine learning model and a web-based tool that assist healthcare practitioners in personalized clinical decision-making and treatment optimization for ASC patients following primary tumor resection.