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Beyond binary: Analyzing closed-source data to compare specific roles and behaviors within violent and nonviolent

Amber Seaward¹, Zoe Marchment¹, Caitlin Clemmow¹

¹Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London, London, UK.

Journal of Forensic Sciences

|November 7, 2024

Summary

Disaggregating terrorist behaviors beyond violence versus nonviolence reveals more detailed risk factors. This nuanced approach is crucial for accurate threat assessment in countering violent extremism.

Keywords:

risk and protective factors risk assessment terrorism terrorist roles and behaviors threat assessment violent and nonviolent terrorist behaviors violent extremism

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Published on: September 28, 2018

Area of Science:

Psychology
Criminology
Sociology

Background:

Studies increasingly compare risk factors for violent and nonviolent terrorist behaviors.
The binary distinction may be insufficient for understanding nuanced roles and behaviors.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate if disaggregating terrorist behaviors into more granular roles is valuable.
To compare violent and nonviolent referrals and specific behaviors within a UK Prevent hub.

Main Methods:

Analysis of 404 referrals to a UK countering violent extremism hub.
Bivariate and multivariate analyses comparing referral categories and specific behaviors (vulnerability, foreign fighting, violence planning).

Main Results:

Disaggregating behaviors beyond violence/nonviolence revealed more detailed relationships.
Gender did not differentiate violent/nonviolent referrals, but women were more referred for vulnerability or foreign fighting.
Personality and developmental disorders were linked to violence; disaggregated data offered insight into these associations.

Conclusions:

There is significant value in disaggregating terrorist behaviors beyond a simple violence/nonviolence binary.
Operational implications for threat assessment include using refined risk factors for more relevant outcomes.
Further research and practice should adopt a more granular approach to understanding terrorist roles and behaviors.