Business-as-usual trends will largely miss 2030 global conservation targets

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Conservation Biology
• Ecology

Background:

• Urgent global conservation targets for 2030 include protecting 30% of land and sea, halting forest loss, and restoring 350 million hectares of degraded land.
• Current business-as-usual trends indicate a failure to meet these critical environmental goals.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the gap between current trends and 2030 conservation targets.
• To identify historical examples of rapid progress toward conservation goals.
• To link successful trend-shifts to underlying drivers of change.

Main Methods:

• Gap analysis comparing business-as-usual scenarios with 2030 conservation targets.
• Case study identification of past rapid trend-shifts in conservation.
• Analysis of levers (governance, economic, values, knowledge) associated with trend-shifts.

Main Results:

• Under current trajectories, all three major 2030 conservation targets will be missed.
• Historical examples demonstrate that rapid "trend-shifts" capable of achieving targets have occurred.
• These successful trend-shifts are associated with transformative changes in environmental governance, economic incentives, societal values, and knowledge dissemination.

Conclusions:

• Achieving 2030 conservation targets requires moving beyond business-as-usual.
• Fostering past successful trend-shifts through targeted interventions is crucial.
• Further research and bold action on key levers are urgently needed to meet global biodiversity and climate goals.