How Likely Is it that I Would Act the Same Way: Modeling Moral Judgment During Uncertainty

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Moral Psychology
• Social Cognition

Background:

• Moral judgments often involve uncertainty due to incomplete information about context.
• Traditional theories focus on social norms or harm/utility, but may not fully capture judgment under uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and test a new model of moral judgment based on probabilistic reasoning.
• To investigate how individuals evaluate others' behavior by considering their own potential actions in similar contexts.

Main Methods:

• Developed a Bayesian model formalizing moral judgment as probabilistic reasoning.
• Conducted four studies (N=601) using moral vignettes and economic games to test the model.
• Compared the proposed model's predictive power against traditional theories.

Main Results:

• The proposed model significantly outperformed traditional theories in predicting moral judgment under uncertainty.
• Evidence supported the idea that people assess the likelihood of acting similarly in another's situation.
• Findings highlight the role of integrating possibilities when parsing uncertainty.

Conclusions:

• A novel model of moral judgment integrating probabilistic reasoning offers a better explanation for judgments under uncertainty.
• This framework has potential to unify research across social judgment, decision-making, and probabilistic reasoning.
• The study demonstrates how individuals navigate uncertainty by considering multiple potential contexts.