Phenological mismatch is less important than total nectar availability for checkerspot butterflies

Changes in phenology are a conspicuous fingerprint of climate change, leading to fears that phenological mismatches among interacting species will be a leading cause of population declines and extinction. We used quantile regression to analyze museum collection data and estimate changes in the phenological overlap of Baltimore checkerspot butterflies and 12 common nectar plant species over several decades in two geographic regions. We combined these museum data with field estimates of each species' flower density and nectar sugar production to estimate changes in resource availability caused by shifts in phenological overlap. Phenological overlap (measured as the proportion of plant flowering during the flight period of an average butterfly) decreased through time, primarily because the flowering period of nectar plants was longer, but the flight period of butterflies was shorter in recent years. Our study was also motivated by the hypothesis that phenological mismatches may be more severe in the southern region due to a midsummer dearth in floral resources, but this hypothesis was not supported by our data. Although phenological overlap was somewhat smaller in the southern region, changes in overlap through time were similar in both regions. When phenological overlap was weighted by nectar sugar production of different species, the overlap increased in the southern region but decreased in the northern region (the opposite of our prediction). Overall, nectar resources were much more abundant at study sites in our northern region than in our southern region, possibly due to differences in land management. Our study demonstrates the complexities of phenological mismatch of interacting species and highlights that phenological changes may have small impacts on population viability.