A robust LightGBM model for concrete tensile strength forecast to aid in resilience-based structure strategies

The tensile strength (TS) of concrete is a factor in the design of civil engineering structures. Traditional methods for assessing concrete TS have notable limitations, leading to the emergence of non-destructive testing (NDT) as an innovative alternative. This study introduces a novel, optimized approach for accurate, non-destructive TS prediction by integrating Gradio, Bayesian optimization (BO), and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The input parameters for the model were ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) and electrical resistivity (ER). Using a comprehensive dataset of 3460 datapoints, a light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) model was developed. Through extensive hyperparameter tuning facilitated by BO, the model achieved a robust prediction accuracy of approximately 98 %. The novel application of SHAP in this study provided deep insights into model behavior, confirming UPV as the most critical variable for TS prediction. The deployment of the model using Gradio further enhances its accessibility and usability. This combined methodology not only advances the application of machine learning (ML) in civil engineering but also offers a powerful, globally applicable tool for accurately forecasting concrete TS. This supports resilience-based management strategies, essential for the sustainable development of infrastructure. The study's novel integration of BO for optimization and SHAP for interpretability marks a significant step forward in the precise prediction of TS, offering practical benefits for both researchers and industry professionals.