Strength and timing of austral winter Angolan coastal upwelling

The tropical Angolan upwelling system (tAUS) is a highly productive ecosystem of great socio-economic importance. Productivity peaks in austral winter and is linked to the passage of remotely forced upwelling coastal trapped waves (CTWs), where the strength of the productivity peak is associated with the amplitude of the upwelling CTW. Here, we analyze the year-to-year variability in the timing and amplitude of the austral winter upwelling CTW by examining sea surface temperature, sea level anomaly, and wind fields. Our results show that the timing of the CTW is influenced by variability in the equatorial region and along the southern African coast. Weaker equatorial easterlies from April to July delay the generation of the upwelling Kelvin wave, leading to a later arrival of the upwelling CTW. In contrast, the amplitude of the CTW is primarily influenced by variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the central South Atlantic, where the South Atlantic Anticyclone is located. A cooling in the eastern equatorial Atlantic three to four months before the arrival of the CTW causes stronger zonal winds, ultimately leading to a stronger austral winter upwelling CTW. Our results suggest that the timing and amplitude of the upwelling CTW in the tAUS during austral winter are predictable on seasonal time scales.