Increased spending on low-value care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Virginia

Characterizing the value and equity of care delivered during the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial to uncovering health system vulnerabilities and informing postpandemic recovery. We used insurance claims to evaluate low-value (no clinical benefit, potentially harmful) and clinically indicated utilization of a subset of 11 ambulatory services within a cohort of ∼2 million Virginia adults during the first 2 years of the pandemic (March 1, 2020-December 31, 2021). In 2020, low-value and clinically indicated utilization decreased similarly, while in 2021, low-value and clinically indicated utilization were 7% higher and 4% lower, respectively, than prepandemic rates. Extrapolated to Virginia's population of insured adults, ∼$1.3 billion in spending was associated with low-value utilization of the 11 services during the study period, with 2021 spending rates 6% higher than prepandemic rates. During March 1, 2020-December 31, 2021, low-value and clinically indicated utilization were 15% and 16% lower, respectively, than pre-pandemic rates among patients with the greatest socioeconomic deprivation but similar to prepandemic rates among patients with the least socioeconomic deprivation. These results highlight widening healthcare disparities and underscore the need for policy-level efforts to address the complex drivers of low-value care and equitably redistribute expenditures to services that enhance health.