Dynamics of clustering rates in the Rhode Island HIV-1 epidemic

Characterizing HIV clustering rates and their trends over time can improve understanding a local epidemic and enhance its control.

Leveraging an academic-public health partnership in Rhode Island, we explored longitudinal dynamics of statewide clustering rates among key populations from 1991 to 2023. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were grouped by year of HIV-1 diagnosis. Molecular clusters were identified in cumulative annual phylogenies. Overall clustering rates, and clustering rates of newly diagnosed and prevalent infections, and of specific sociodemographic characteristics of key populations over time were determined. Mann-Kendall statistics were used to estimate clustering rate trends and relationships among groups.

By the end of 2023, 2630 individuals with sequences represented the statewide epidemic in Rhode Island. Overall clustering rates increased from 7% in 1991 to 46% in 2023, correlating with cumulative sequence increase. Clustering rates of newly diagnosed and prevalent infections significantly increased over time, higher in newly diagnosed individuals since the early 2000s. Increases were also observed among groups defined by gender, age, transmission risks, race, mental illness, HIV-1 subtypes, and country of birth, with some crossovers and divergence patterns over time.

Exploring dynamics of HIV clustering rates over three decades in a statewide HIV-1 epidemic expanded its characterization and provided insight into its evolving changes. These dynamics may indicate a gradual shift towards a more concentrated and localized HIV-1 epidemic, highlighting important opportunities for targeted interventions to effectively prevent new HIV transmissions.