Brazil nut journey under future climate change in Amazon

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Biodiversity Conservation

Background:

• Climate change poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, particularly in megadiverse regions like the Amazon.
• The Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) is an iconic and economically important species in the Amazonian ecosystem.
• Understanding climate change impacts on key species is crucial for conservation efforts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution and persistence of the Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) in the Amazon.
• To model future spatial dynamics, including dispersal, colonization, and extinction risks for Bertholletia excelsa under various climate scenarios.
• To identify potential refugia and areas for future restoration.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an ensemble of distribution modeling methods.
• Employed four distinct climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
• Simulated species' spatial dynamics, incorporating dispersal events, to assess future suitability by the end of the century.

Main Results:

• Projected a widespread loss of suitable habitat for Bertholletia excelsa across the Amazon biome, irrespective of the climate scenario.
• Predicted a potential significant reduction in available area for the species, up to 94%, due to climate change-induced extinction.
• Observed a trend of the species migrating to higher altitudes to find favorable conditions.
• Identified previously unsuitable areas that may become suitable by the end of the century.

Conclusions:

• Climate change is expected to cause substantial habitat loss and range contraction for the Brazil nut tree in the Amazon.
• The species' future survival may depend on its ability to colonize higher altitudes.
• The identification of newly suitable areas offers opportunities for targeted conservation and restoration initiatives to mitigate climate change impacts.