Predictors for colectomy in patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) poses challenges to patient management owing to its high surgical rate. This study aimed to identify predictors of colectomy in patients with ASUC.

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed and Web of Science were searched up to April 2024.

Studies on the predictors of colectomy in adult patients with ASUC were eligible.

Two reviewers independently extracted the data using a prespecified data collection sheet. A qualitative synthesis was performed in tabular form. Random-effect meta-analyses were conducted using OR and 95% CI.

Forty-two studies were included in the systematic review. The reported variables can be categorised into biomarkers, auxiliary examination findings, demographic and clinical characteristics, and drug factors. Through meta-analysis, albumin (OR 0.39 (95% CI 0.26 to 0.59) per 1 g/dL increment, I²=0.0%), high C reactive protein level (2.63 (1.53 to 4.52), I²=29.6%), high erythrocyte sedimentation rate level (2.92 (1.39 to 6.14), I²=0.0%), low haemoglobin level (2.08 (1.07 to 4.07), I²=56.4%), fulfilling the Oxford criteria (4.42 (2.85 to 6.84), I²=0.0%), extensive colitis (1.85 (1.24 to 2.78), I²=47.5%), previous steroids (1.75 (1.23 to 2.50), I²=17.7%) or azathioprine (2.25 (1.28 to 3.96), I²=0.0%) use, and sarcopenia (1.90 (1.04 to 3.45), I²=0.0%) were identified as valuable predictors for colectomy within 1 year. The ulcerative colitis endoscopic index of severity (OR 2.41 (95% CI 1.72 to 3.39), I²=1.5%) was the only predictor found to predict colectomy over 1 year.

Identification of these predictors may facilitate risk stratification of patients with ASUC, drive personalised treatment and reduce the need for colectomy.