Tracing human influence on rising surface air temperature in Venezuela
Basudev Swain1, Marco Vountas2, Aishwarya Singh3,4
1Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany. basudev@iup.physik.uni-bremen.de.
Scientific Reports
|November 14, 2024
Summary
Human activities, particularly land use changes, have significantly increased Venezuela's surface air temperature (SAT), causing glacier loss. Managing these factors can mitigate future warming and protect the ecosystem.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Venezuela has experienced a significant rise in surface air temperature (SAT), leading to the complete loss of its glaciers.
- Understanding the human contribution to this warming is crucial for regional climate change mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of anthropogenic climate forcings on SAT in Venezuela.
- To quantify the contributions of land use (LU), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (Aaer) to SAT changes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized observational data and multi-model climate simulations.
- Employed the optimal fingerprinting method to attribute SAT changes to specific forcings.
- Analyzed projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Main Results:
- Anthropogenic forcings caused a 0.40-0.85°C SAT rise during the industrial era.
- Land use (LU) was a primary driver (0.36-0.68°C), exceeding greenhouse gases (GHGs) (0.10-0.62°C).
- Anthropogenic aerosols (Aaer) exerted a cooling effect (-0.93 to -0.25°C).
Conclusions:
- Human activities are the dominant cause of SAT rise in Venezuela.
- Future projections indicate continued warming under RCP 4.5.
- Managing regional Aaer and LU changes is key to mitigating warming and protecting Venezuela's ecosystems.
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