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Global Distribution of Alien Mammals Under Climate Change
Dino Biancolini1,2,3, Michela Pacifici2, Mattia Falaschi4
1Institute for Bioeconomy (CNR-IBE), National Research Council of Italy, Rome, Italy.
Global Change Biology
|November 15, 2024
Summary
Climate change is expanding suitable habitats for invasive alien mammals globally, increasing establishment potential. Management efforts should focus on generalist species and vulnerable island ecosystems to protect biodiversity.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Climate Change Science
Background:
- Biological invasions, particularly by alien species, pose a significant threat to global biodiversity.
- Climate change is predicted to exacerbate invasion risks by altering species distributions and facilitating spread.
- Previous research has not comprehensively assessed invasion risks by combining climatic suitability and dispersal potential for key taxonomic groups like mammals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the future distribution of 205 alien mammal species by 2050 under various climate change scenarios.
- To differentiate between areas susceptible to natural dispersal (Spread Potential) and human-assisted establishment (Establishment Potential).
- To identify high-risk invasive species and vulnerable regions for targeted conservation and management.
Main Methods:
- Utilized species distribution models to project potential future distributions of alien mammals.
- Incorporated species dispersal abilities to assess Spread Potential (SP) and Establishment Potential (EP).
- Analyzed impacts across 11 zoogeographic realms under three distinct climatic scenarios.
Main Results:
- Climate change generally enhances Establishment Potential (EP) for alien mammals, with a poleward shift observed.
- Spread Potential (SP) is negatively impacted by climate change and constrained by island insularity.
- Alien mammals may lose suitability in some areas (especially islands), potentially acting as geographical traps, while increasing in others.
Conclusions:
- Climate change presents a dual threat, increasing establishment potential while potentially limiting natural spread for alien mammals.
- Management strategies should prioritize generalist species with high invasive potential and address increased risks in new regions.
- Conservation efforts, especially in island ecosystems, require integrated approaches to combat biological invasions and climate change impacts on biodiversity.
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