Modeling the velocity of evolving lineages and predicting dispersal patterns

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Genetics
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Estimating dispersal velocity in evolving organisms is challenging.
• Current phylogeographic models inadequately define or estimate velocity.
• Brownian trajectory models lack a concept of instantaneous speed.

Purpose of the Study:

• Introduce a novel family of models, Phylogenetic Integrated Velocity (PIV) models.
• Explicitly model the velocity of evolving lineages using Gaussian processes.
• Improve the accuracy of dispersal velocity estimation.

Main Methods:

• Developed Phylogenetic Integrated Velocity (PIV) models.
• Utilized Gaussian processes to model lineage velocity.
• Compared PIV model accuracy against existing approaches.

Main Results:

• PIV models demonstrate increased accuracy in velocity estimation.
• Analyses of West Nile virus data in the US were performed.
• PIV models provide sensible predictions for pathogen dispersal.

Conclusions:

• PIV models offer a relevant framework for predictive phylogeography.
• These models enhance the monitoring of epidemics in space and time.
• Demonstrated the feasibility and relevance of predictive phylogeography for public health.