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Transforming Aviation's Impact on the Climate: Rethinking the Research Strategy.

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  • 1CICERO Center for International Climate Research, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo, Norway.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Aviation needs an experimental approach to address climate change due to deep uncertainties in low-emission fuels and non-CO2 effects. This strategy involves motivated actors, broad experimentation, and adaptive planning for hard-to-abate sectors.

Keywords:
Aviationclimate policydeep uncertaintyexperimentalist governanceindustrial organization

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Climate change mitigation
  • Aerospace engineering

Background:

  • Aviation faces significant pressure to reduce climate impact.
  • Deep uncertainties exist regarding low-emission fuel scalability and non-CO2 effects management.
  • Conventional risk-based strategies are insufficient for addressing these uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose an experimentalist approach for aviation climate change mitigation.
  • To outline key factors for successful implementation of an experimentalist strategy.
  • To highlight the applicability of this framework to other hard-to-abate sectors.

Main Methods:

  • Advocating for an experimentalist framework over conventional risk-based approaches.
  • Identifying four key factors for an experimentalist approach: actor incentives, broad search, assessment, and adaptation.
  • Suggesting the formation of motivated actor coalitions to initiate experimental programs.

Main Results:

  • Conventional risk management is unworkable for aviation's climate challenges due to deep uncertainties.
  • An experimentalist approach, focusing on exploration and adaptation, is proposed as a viable alternative.
  • Current strategies neglect high-risk, disruptive alternatives, lacking political and organizational support.

Conclusions:

  • An experimentalist approach is crucial for navigating deep uncertainties in aviation climate mitigation.
  • Motivated actor coalitions can pioneer experimental programs for clean aviation solutions.
  • The proposed framework offers a transferable model for other hard-to-abate sectors facing similar uncertainties.