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Field-Based Thermal Physiology Assay: Cold Shock Recovery under Ambient Conditions
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Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate: A multicountry multicommunity observational

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This summary is machine-generated.

Population susceptibility to temperature varies significantly by region. Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and MMT percentile (MMTP) show heterogeneous temporal changes globally, indicating region-specific adaptations to climate change.

Keywords:
Climate changeHeterogeneityHuman adaptationMinimum mortality temperatureTemporal change

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental epidemiology
  • Climate change adaptation
  • Public health

Background:

  • Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and its percentile (MMTP) indicate population susceptibility to non-optimal temperatures.
  • Temporal changes in MMT and MMTP exhibit significant regional heterogeneity.
  • Understanding these changes is crucial for assessing population vulnerability to climate shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP.
  • To analyze these changes across multiple communities and countries.
  • To investigate region-specific variations in population temperature susceptibility.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized daily time-series data for mortality and ambient temperature from 699 communities in 34 countries (1986-2015).
  • Employed a two-stage meta-analysis, including quasi-Poisson regression and mixed-effects meta-regressions.
  • Examined temporal trends in MMT and MMTP overall and stratified by climate zone, geographical region, and country.

Main Results:

  • Overall, MMT increased from 19.5°C to 20.3°C and MMTP from 74.5 to 75.0 percentiles.
  • Significant heterogeneity in temporal changes was observed across geographical regions (P < 0.001).
  • MMT increased in East and South-East Asia, decreased in South Europe; MMTP decreased in North and South Europe.

Conclusions:

  • Temporal changes in MMT and MMTP are highly heterogeneous across regions.
  • Population susceptibility to temperature has likely evolved with a warming climate, displaying substantial regional variations.
  • These findings highlight the need for region-specific public health strategies to address climate change impacts.