Desertification sensitivity and its impacts on land use change in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

Desertification poses a major challenge in the northwestern arid areas of China. Land use activities are increasingly endangered by desertification, including direct impact (e.g., farmland abandonment) and indirect impact (e.g., farmland area control). However, previous studies have primarily focused on the impact of land use on desertification processes, while there has been limited research on the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use. Based on the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models, we identify the spatiotemporal distribution of desertification sensitivity and analyze the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use in the Tarim Basin from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the desertification sensitivity areas were primarily concentrated in the critical areas (proportion > 50 %), followed by the fragile and potential areas. In terms of the direct impact, the areas of abandoned farmland due to desertification were 68.25 km² and 1444.25 km² during the periods of 2000-2010 and 2010-2020, respectively. Additionally, 3893.25 km² of farmland was at risk of abandonment. After being abandoned, the farmland was primarily converted into grassland. In terms of the indirect impact, the differences between predicted (simulations without farmland area control) and observed farmland area, serving as an indicator of farmland area control to reduce desertification risks, were 1065.75 km² in 2010 and 4614.00 km² in 2020. Our paper provides new insights into the direct and indirect impacts of desertification on land use, providing references for formulating desertification control policies and regional land use planning.