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Justifying an Invasion: When Is Disinformation Successful?
Jan Zilinsky1, Yannis Theocharis1, Franziska Pradel1
1Department of Governance, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Political Communication
|November 20, 2024
Summary
Preexisting conspiracy beliefs, not social media use, predict belief in disinformation. Understanding conspiracy thinking is key to combating foreign influence campaigns and war-related propaganda.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Psychology
- Media Studies
Background:
- Authoritarian regimes utilize social media for psychological influence campaigns.
- Citizens in democratic nations are perceived as vulnerable to disinformation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the factors influencing belief in foreign-sponsored disinformation.
- To determine whether individual conspiracy beliefs or media consumption habits are stronger predictors of accepting false narratives.
Main Methods:
- Survey data from 19 countries analyzed.
- Individual-level conspiracy outlook and media diets were assessed.
- Belief in Russia's invasion justifications was correlated with these factors.
Main Results:
- A preexisting conspiracy outlook consistently predicted higher belief in Russian invasion justifications.
- Social media use (YouTube, Facebook, TikTok) showed weaker associations with belief in disinformation compared to conspiracy thinking.
- Conspiratorial mindset was a universal predictor of believing war-related disinformation across all surveyed countries.
Conclusions:
- Individual predispositions towards conspiratorial thinking are more significant than media diets in driving belief in disinformation.
- While media interventions may help, addressing the root causes of conspiracy thinking is crucial for mitigating foreign influence.
- Further research into the underlying mechanisms of conspiratorial thinking is warranted.
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