Defining algal bloom phenology in Lake Erie

Elucidating the impact of global climate change on aquatic ecosystems, particularly through phenological shifts in primary producers, is critical for understanding ecological resilience. Here, we focus on the phenological shifts in chlorophyll as a proxy for algae biomass and primary production in aquatic ecosystems, specifically in Lake Erie as well as concentrations of the toxin microcystin. By tracking temporal changes in each, we identified key phenological phases important to estimate duration, magnitude, and intensity of harmful algal blooms (HABs). Determining which influential biotic and abiotic factors such as temperature, wind speed, nutrient availability, and climate change is most important, is a long-term management need for Lake Erie, which can be explored using our methodology. Our novel statistical framework employing Bayesian generalized additive mixed models described seasonal chlorophyll and particulate microcystin concentration from Lake Erie and our simple geometric method identified the start, peak, and end of algal blooms. This research enhances our understanding of the ecological effects of nutrient pollution on aquatic ecosystems and provides a repeatable method for determining phenological events without the need for user defined cutoffs which aids in the management and mitigation of HABs, safeguarding water quality in regions dependent on lakes for drinking water.