Projected waste and recycling potential of China's photovoltaic industry

The massive expansion of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, driven by the decarbonization of the energy mix, has led to an exponential increase in PV waste. In order to ensure the stable development of the PV industry, it is crucial to make accurate macro forecasts of future PV waste in China. In this study, a multifactor installed capacity forecasting model based on long- and short-term bi-directional memory GRA is proposed to predict the cumulative installed PV capacity in China from 2024 to 2050. The Weibull distribution and dynamic scenario analysis are utilized to quantify the recycling of panel materials for different technologies and to assess the potential economic value of recycling. The results show that China's cumulative installed PV capacity will reach 2,901 GW by 2050. 99.75 million tons, 40.96 million tons, and 5.29 million tons of C-si, CdTe, and CIGS panels could be cumulatively recycled in the baseline scenario of Regular loss. Distributed PV will generate more end-of-life equipment than centralized PV, up to an estimated 11.8-0.5 % more. In all scenarios, the capacity of recycled equipment averages up to 64.7 % of new capacity, with a significant complementary effect of recycling. Recycling is projected to generate $13.99 billion, with significant economic benefits. Helps decision makers to take measures based on recycled materials from different technologies.