Spatial and temporal distribution of Ixodes scapularis and tick-borne pathogens across the northeastern United States

The incidence of tick-borne diseases is increasing across the USA, with cases concentrated in the northeastern and midwestern regions of the country. Ixodes scapularis is one of the most important tick-borne disease vectors and has spread throughout the northeastern USA over the past four decades, with established populations in all states of the region.

To better understand the rapid expansion of I. scapularis and the pathogens they transmit, we aggregated and analyzed I. scapularis abundance and pathogen prevalence data from across the northeastern USA, including the states of Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New York and Vermont, from 1989 to 2021. Maine was the only state to collect data during the entire time period, with the other states collecting data during a subset of this time period starting in 2008 or later. We harmonized I. scapularis abundance by county and tick season, where the nymph season is defined as May to September and the adult season is October to December, and calculated I. scapularis pathogen infection prevalence as the percentage of ticks that tested positive for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Babesia microti, Borrelia burgdorferi, and Borrelia miyamotoi. We then explored temporal trends in I. scapularis abundance and pathogen prevalence data using linear models.

The resulting dataset is one of the most spatially and temporally comprehensive records of tick abundance and pathogen prevalence in the USA. Using linear models, we found small or insignificant changes in the abundance of nymphs and adults over time; however, A. phagocytophilum, B. microti and B. burgdorferi prevalence in both nymphs and adults has increased over time. For the period 2017-2021, the statewide average prevalence of B. burgdorferi ranged from 19% to 25% in I. scapularis nymphs and from to 49% to 54% in I. scapularis adults. The statewide average prevalence of all other pathogens in I. scapularis for 2017-2021, including A. phagocytophilum (4-6% for nymphs, 4-9% for adults), B. microti (4-8% for nymphs, 2-13% for adults) and B. miyamotoi (1-2% for nymphs, 1-2% for adults), was considerably less.

Our efforts revealed the complications of creating a comprehensive dataset of tick abundance and pathogen prevalence across time and space due to variations in tick collection and pathogen testing methods. Although tick abundance has not changed along the more southern latitudes in our study over this time period, and only gradually changed in the more northern latitudes of our study, human risk for exposure to tick-borne pathogens has increased due to increased pathogen prevalence in I. scapularis. This dataset can be used in future studies of I. scapularis and pathogen prevalence across the northeastern USA and to evaluate models of I. scapularis ecology and population dynamics.