Assessing Dengue Virus Importation Risks in Africa: A Climate and Travel-Based Model

Dengue is a significant global public health concern that poses a threat to Africa. Particularly, African countries are at risk of viral introductions through air travel connectivity with areas of South America and Asia that experience frequent explosive outbreaks. Limited reporting and diagnostic capacity hinder a comprehensive assessment of continent-wide transmission dynamics and deployment of surveillance strategies in Africa. This study aimed to identify African airports at high risk of receiving dengue infected passengers from Asia, Latin America and other African countries with high dengue incidence.

The risk of dengue introduction into Africa from countries of high incidence in Africa, Latin America and within Africa was estimated based on origin-destination air travel flows and epidemic activity at origin. We produced a novel proxy for local dengue epidemic activity using a composite index of theoretical climate-driven transmission suitability and population density, which we used, along with travel information in a risk flow model, to estimate importation risk.

We find that countries in East Africa face higher estimated risk of importation from Asia and other East African countries, whereas for West African countries, larger risk of importation is estimated from within the region. Some countries with high risk of importation experience low local transmission suitability which likely hampers the chances that importations lead to local transmission and establishment. Conversely, Mauritius, Uganda, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Kenya are identified as countries susceptible to dengue introductions during periods of persistent transmission suitability.

Our work improves data driven allocation of surveillance resources, in regions of Africa that are at high risk of dengue introduction and establishment, including from regional circulation. This will be critical in detecting and managing imported cases and can improve local response to dengue outbreaks.

Rockefeller Foundation, National Institute of Health, EDCTP3 and Horizon Europe Research and Innovation, World Bank Group, Medical Research Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Google.org, Oxford Martin School Pandemic Genomics programme, John Fell Fund.