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The reliability of basketball shooting tests with binary outcomes
R Jutreša1, E Štrumbelj1, F Erčulj2
1Faculty of Computer and Information Science, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Journal of Sports Sciences
|November 24, 2024
Summary
Reliable basketball shooting tests require modeling binary outcomes and large sample sizes. While shot trajectory data offers insights, it doesn't significantly enhance shooting ability estimations.
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Statistical Modeling
- Biomechanics
Background:
- Assessing basketball shooting performance is crucial for player development and evaluation.
- Existing methods for analyzing shooting test data may not fully capture the nuances of binary outcomes or incorporate trajectory information.
- Determining the optimal number of shots for reliable performance measurement is an ongoing challenge.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate a Bayesian statistical model for analyzing binary basketball shooting test data.
- To investigate the impact of sample size on the reliability of shooting tests.
- To assess the added value of shot trajectory data (location, angle) in improving shooting ability estimations.
Main Methods:
- A Bayesian statistical model was designed to handle binary outcomes and model data from multiple individuals concurrently.
- The model's utility was demonstrated through a simulation study.
- Real-world data from 27 basketball players and 7309 shots across 4 shooting tests were analyzed.
Main Results:
- Modeling shooting data with binary outcomes is practically important for accurate analysis.
- Reliable basketball shooting tests necessitate relatively large sample sizes (number of shots).
- Shot trajectory data provided valuable insights but did not lead to meaningful improvements in estimating shooting ability.
Conclusions:
- The developed Bayesian model effectively addresses the complexities of basketball shooting test data.
- Adequate sample sizes are essential for achieving reliable assessments of shooting performance.
- While trajectory data offers supplementary information, its current utility in enhancing shooting ability estimation in this context is limited.
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