The influence of water and air temperature on elite wheelchair triathlon performance

Impaired thermoregulatory function is a clinical feature of many health conditions that affect triathletes using wheelchairs and consequently, individual athlete performances may fluctuate according to environmental temperature. We aimed to determine the effect of 1) water temperature on wheelchair triathlon swim time and 2) air temperature on handcycle and wheelchair run (push) time. Published race records from 2017 to 2023 (n = 49 events) were extracted from the World Triathlon website. Bayesian negative binomial regression was used to separately model the nonlinear relationships between water temperature and swim time, and air temperature and handcycle and push time. Age, sex, sport class, whether wetsuits were worn (swim model), and swim time (handcycle and push model) were included as fixed effects. Over the observed water temperature range of 15.7-30.5°C, male swim time (mm:ss) improved from 14:13 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 12:27, 16:09) to 12:35 (95% CrI = 11:00, 14:19). Female swim time improved from 15:33 (95% CrI = 13:24, 17:55) to 12:46 (95% CrI = 11:03, 14:38). It was unclear whether handcycle and push time slowed over the observed air temperature range of 14-33°C. Warmer water temperatures, up to 30.5°C, were associated with faster swim times. It was unclear whether combined handcycle and push time slowed with increases in air temperature, up to 33°C. The integration of information on athlete impairment type and severity with performance data is needed to better understand the extent to which individual athlete performances fluctuate across environmental conditions.