Risk prediction model for psoriatic arthritis: NHANES data and multi-algorithm approach

To develop a simplified predictive model for identifying psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in psoriasis patients.

Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database were analyzed, including patients with psoriasis without arthritis (PsC) or PsA. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, Boruta algorithm, random forest, and stepwise regression were employed to select key variables from 38 potential predictors. Logistic regression models were constructed for each combination of selected variables and evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall (PR) curves, calibration plots, Brier scores, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

The study included 587 patients with psoriasis, 238 of whom had PsA. The variable combinations proposed by the Boruta algorithm exhibited the best overall performance. Key predictors in the Borutamodel included age, fasting glucose, education level, thyroid disease, hypertension, and chronic bronchitis. This model achieved area under the curve (AUC) of 0.781 (95% CI, 0.737-0.826) for the training set and 0.780 (95% CI, 0.712-0.848) for the testing set in the ROC curve analyses. The AUC values in the PR curves were 0.687 (95% CI, 0.611-0.757) and 0.653 (95% CI, 0.535-0.770), respectively. The Brier scores of 0.186 and 0.191 for the testing and training sets indicated a good fit, further supported by the calibration curves. DCA showed a net clinical benefit for decision thresholds ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 in both datasets.

The Borutamodel represents a promising tool for early risk assessment of PsA. Key Points • National Database Utilization: This study leverages the NHANES database to predict psoriatic arthritis risk, addressing previous limitations tied to regional or ethnic constraints. • Comprehensive Variable Analyses: The research examines 38 variables, including demographics, health conditions, laboratory results, and lifestyle factors, using four distinct screening methods and thorough evaluations of model performance. • Innovative Risk Model: The study introduces a novel risk assessment model that integrates age, fasting glucose, education, and comorbidities including hypertension, thyroid disease, and chronic bronchitis, thus moving beyond traditional focus on skin lesions and joint symptoms.