Improving the Rapidity of Magnitude Estimation for Earthquake Early Warning Systems for Railways

To improve the performance of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, we propose an approach that utilizes the time-dependence of P-wave displacements to estimate the earthquake magnitude (M) based on the relationship between M and the displacement. The traditional seismological understanding posits that this relationship achieves statistical significance when the displacement reaches its final peak value, resulting in the adoption of time-constant coefficients. However, considering the potential for earlier establishment of the relationship's significance than conventionally assumed, we analyze waveforms observed in Japan and determine the intercept in the relationship as a function of time from the P-wave onset. We demonstrate that our approach reduces the underestimation of M in the initial P-wave stages compared to the conventional technique. Consequently, we find a significant rise in the number of earlier warnings in the Japanese railway EEW system. Due to the inherent trade-off between the immediacy and accuracy of alarm outputs, the proposed method unavoidably leads to an increase in the frequency of alerts. Nonetheless, if deemed acceptable by system users, our approach can contribute to EEW performance improvement.