Strong long ties facilitate epidemic containment on mobility networks

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Network Science
• Public Health

Background:

• Mobility networks are crucial for understanding epidemic spread.
• Strong long (SL) ties connect distant regions with high interaction, posing unique risks for disease transmission.
• Identifying and managing SL ties is essential for effective pandemic response.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify strong long (SL) ties in Shanghai's mobility network.
• To assess the impact of SL ties on epidemic propagation using a reaction-diffusion model.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of a grid-joint isolation strategy targeting SL ties.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of connection strengths and distances in a high-resolution mobility network (1km x 1km).
• Identification of SL ties as outliers in the joint distribution of distance and flow.
• Application of a grid-joint isolation strategy and a reaction-diffusion transmission model.

Main Results:

• SL ties connect regions with low spatial autocorrelation but similar temporal disease transmission patterns.
• Grid-joint isolation targeting SL ties reduced cumulative infections by an average of 17.1% compared to other isolation methods.
• SL ties play a significant role in extending pandemic duration and creating satellite clusters.

Conclusions:

• SL ties are critical pathways for epidemic propagation and require targeted interventions.
• Spatially focused interventions on remote areas linked by SL ties are necessary for effective epidemic management.
• Understanding and leveraging mobility network structures, particularly SL ties, enhances epidemic control and preparedness.