The Maximal Expected Benefit of SARS-CoV-2 Interventions Among University Students: A Simulation Study Using Latent...

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Behavioral Science

Background:

• Non-pharmaceutical public health measures (PHMs) were crucial for mitigating Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission before vaccines.
• Adherence to PHMs varied, impacting their overall effectiveness, and the interconnectedness of PHM adoption complicated individual measure impact assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the relationship between adherence to PHMs and SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk in a university student population.
• To identify distinct adherence groups and quantify their respective seropositivity rates.

Main Methods:

• A longitudinal cohort design was employed during Fall 2020, combining behavioral surveys on PHM adherence intention with IgG serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 exposure.
• Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was used to categorize students into adherence groups based on survey responses.

Main Results:

• Three student groups emerged: most adherent (38.04%), moderately adherent (46.21%), and least adherent (15.75%).
• Seropositivity rates were inversely correlated with adherence: 25.4% (most), 32.2% (moderate), and 37.7% (least).
• An SIR model simulation indicated that universal high adherence could reduce seroprevalence by 76-93%.

Conclusions:

• Adherence to PHMs significantly influences SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk within a university setting.
• Despite potential benefits of increased adherence, substantial exposure risks remain, particularly among already highly adherent populations.
• Targeted interventions to improve adherence may have limited impact if baseline adherence is already high.