Mapping surface soil organic carbon density of cultivated land using machine learning in Zhengzhou

Research on soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial for improving soil carbon sinks and achieving the "double-carbon" goal. This study introduces ten auxiliary variables based on the data from a 2021 land quality survey in Zhengzhou and a multi-objective regional geochemical survey. It uses geostatistical ordinary kriging (OK) interpolation, as well as classical machine learning (ML) models, including random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), to map soil organic carbon density (SOCD) in the topsoil layer (0 - 20 cm) of cultivated land. It partitions the sampling data to assess the generalization capability of the machine learning models, with Zhongmu County designated as an independent test set (dataset2) and the remaining data as the training set (dataset1). The three models are trained using dataset1, and the trained machine learning models are directly applied to dataset2 to evaluate and compare their generalization performance. The distribution of SOCD and SOCS in soils of various types and textures is analyzed using the optimal interpolation method. The results indicated that: (1) The average SOC densities predicted by OK interpolation, RF, and SVM are 3.70, 3.74, and 3.63 kg/m², with test set precisions (R²) of 0.34, 0.60, and 0.81, respectively. (2) ML achieves a significantly higher predictive precision than traditional OK interpolation. The RF model's precision is 0.21 higher than the SVM model and more precise in estimating carbon stock. (3) When applied to the dataset2, the RF model exhibited superior generalization capabilities (R² = 0.52, MSE = 0.32) over the SVM model (R² = 0.32, MSE = 0.45). (4) The spatial distribution of surface SOCD in the study area exhibits a decreasing gradient from west to east and from south to north. The total carbon stock in the study area is estimated at approximately 10.76 × 10⁶t. (5) The integration of soil attribute variables, climatic variables, remote sensing data, and machine learning techniques holds significant promise for the high-precision and high-quality mapping of soil organic carbon density (SOCD) in agricultural soils.